BCC press release: Uncertainty hanging over UK trade prospects
Reacting to the latest trade data from the Office for National Statistics, William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the BCC, said:
“Looking at the whole of 2025, the gap appears to be widening in the UK’s two-tier export economy. On the plus side, there is robust growth in services as they continue to surge.
“They now make up 58% of all UK overseas sales, with expansion in travel, business advisory services, computing and insurance, alongside traditional strengths like legal and financial.
“This has been helped by improved market access through new trade agreements, such as with South Korea. That provides some optimism for 2026, although more progress is critical in key markets including the EU, US and Indo-Pacific region.
“But the picture on UK goods exports is deeply worrying, as they continued their downward trend, slumping by 2.1% in 2025.
“There are many reasons for this; geopolitical tensions and trade policy volatility are key factors. But government must take a more proactive stance in response to kickstart growth.
“The key focus in 2026 must be on lowering tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers. That means working with Chambers and businesses on stronger trade promotion, and better support to access new markets.
“Given the Office for Budget Responsibility’s latest forecast for a significant cooling in export growth for 2026, the time for action is now.”
December 2025 data
Nearly every metric saw a decline in December as the volume of UK goods exports fell by 2.7%. Sales of goods to the EU dropped 1.8% year-on-year, and to non-EU countries by 3.6%.
Goods imports rose month-on-month in December by 0.7% with a strong increase in non-EU goods imports of 4.3%. This was offset by a fall in goods imports from the EU of 2.7%.
The value of product sales to the US rose by 2.5% in December, led by increased purchases of inorganic chemicals - compared with November. But monthly UK exports of goods to the US remain below where they were three years ago.
For services, the volume of UK exports rose by 0.45% while imports were effectively flat.
Q4 2025 data
The value of UK goods exports fell by 1.7% across the quarter with a similar reduction in imports of 2.3%. Sales to the EU fell by 3.1%, led by a decline in exports of fuels, machinery and transport equipment. Exports to the rest of the world fell 0.4%, with machinery and transport equipment, and chemicals being hit.
The value of goods bought from the EU fell by 1%. Multiple sectors were affected, including transport equipment (planes from Germany), food and drink (mainly from the Netherlands) and chemicals.
There was a larger reduction in imports from the rest of the world of 3.8%. This involved machinery and transport equipment (cars from Japan, ships from South Korea and China), food, pharmaceuticals, chemicals and fuels.
Meanwhile, the value of UK services exports rose by 1.8%, This was led by strong growth in travel, business advisory services, and telecoms, alongside existing strengths in financial services, transport, and insurance. Imports rose by 1.4% across the quarter.
Annual 2025 data
The volume of all UK exports increased by 2% across the year, with imports up by 3.4%.
However, there was a distinct split between goods and services, with sales of products down by 2.1%, while purchases rose by 3.7%.
The volume of services exports rose by 5.2%, while imports rose by 3%.